Former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield predicts that the next pandemic could be from bird flu. Redfield told NewsNation “It’s not a question of if, it’s more of a question of when we will have a bird flu pandemic.”
He warned it might be more lethal than COVID-19, having killed up to 60% of those infected in the past. The mortality rate of the COVID-19 was 0.6 percent. However, in the case of bird flu, Redfield predicts a mortality rate between 25 and 50 percent.
The detection of the virus in dozens of cattle across the country has raised concerns from Redfield. The World Health Organization (WHO), also reported the first human death caused by bird flu in Mexico.
The virus which was first detected in cows in March has now spread in at least 102 herds across the United States. By the end of May, the CDC reported three human cases of bird flu with symptoms including cough.
Experts believe wild birds initially transmitted the virus, carrying it from farms. A USDA report revealed that humans likely play a role in transmitting infections between farms.
There are different strains of the virus. Cows had pathogenic H5N1, while the deceased individual in Mexico was infected with H5N2. It was never detected before.
Redfield says five amino acid changes could enable human-to-human transmission, like COVID-19.
“Once the virus gains the ability to attach to the human receptor and then go human to human, that’s when you’re going to have the pandemic,” he said. “And as I said, I think it’s just a matter of time.”
The CDC tracks wastewater sites to find the virus’s source, but Redfield suggested a greater risk of lab origin.
“I know exactly what amino acids I have to change because in 2012, against my recommendation, the scientists that did these experiments actually published them,” he said. “So, the recipe for how to make bird flu highly [infectious] for humans is already out there.”
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